Longitudinal Trajectories of HbA1c and Fasting Plasma Glucose Levels During the Development of Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE To describe the trajectory of HbA(1c) and glucose concentrations before the diagnosis of diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The study comprised 1,722 nondiabetic Japanese individuals aged 26-80 years. Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and HbA(1c) were measured annually for a mean of 9.5 (SD 1.8) years. RESULTS Diabetes occurred in 193 individuals (FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L, self-reported clinician-diagnosed diabetes, or HbA(1c) ≥ 6.5%). Mean HbA(1c) values were >5.6% each year before diagnosis in diabetes cases. Mean HbA(1c) (5.69% [95% CI 5.50-5.88]) was higher in the 21 individuals who developed diabetes 10 years after the baseline examination than in nondiabetic individuals after 10 years (5.27% [5.25-5.28]). From 3 years to 1 year prediagnosis, HbA(1c) increased 0.09% (SE 0.01)/year, reaching 5.90% (5.84-5.96) 1 year prediagnosis. In the entire group, marked increases in HbA(1c) of 0.3% (SE 0.05%)/year and FPG of 0.63 (0.07) mmol/L/year predicted diabetes. CONCLUSIONS HbA(1c) trajectory increased sharply after gradual long-term increases in diabetic individuals.